Lecture Review: Dr Zhang Mengdi on the Evolution of New Zealand’s China Policy

Summary

On the evening of 14 October 2026, the 36th Oceania Research Workshop of the Centre for Oceania Studies at Sun Yat-sen University, and the 75th session of the 'International Relations Perspectives' lecture series of the School of International Relations at Sun Yat-sen University, were held in Room B404, Haiqin Building No. 6. The theme was 'From Domestic Politics to International Relations: The Evolution of New Zealand's China Policy'. The lecture was chaired by Associate Professor Xu Shaomin of Sun Yat-sen University and delivered by Dr Zhang Mengdi, Senior Administrative Manager of the Strategic Studies Centre at Victoria University of Wellington.

Using neoclassical realism as her analytical framework, Zhang argued that New Zealand is a typical case for observing how small and medium-sized states balance economic and security interests: it relies heavily on the United States and traditional Western partners such as Australia and the United Kingdom for security, while depending heavily on China, its largest trading partner, for its economy. She explained the multi-party bargaining and cabinet decision-making mechanisms under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) system, and outlined New Zealand's three national identities: 'respect for a rules-based international system', 'small trading nation', and 'independent foreign policy'. She noted that the nuclear-free policy since the 1980s is a typical expression of the 'independent foreign policy' identity.

She divided the bilateral relationship since the establishment of diplomatic ties in 1972 into three stages: 1972-2008 was the early development period, when New Zealand promoted relations with China through the 'four firsts' narrative; 2008-2017 was the 'golden period' after the signing of the free trade agreement, when China became New Zealand's largest goods trading partner in 2013 and largest services trading partner in 2016, and cooperation expanded to security areas such as joint military exercises; and 2018 to the present is a 'complex balancing period', when New Zealand explicitly criticised China's relevant activities in the South China Sea in its 2018 defence policy document, and the Huawei 5G incident became a landmark event in the shift in China policy, although economic and trade cooperation and some security dialogues continued. She concluded that the international power structure has had a fundamental impact, domestic political bargaining affects the magnitude and pace of policy adjustment, and the New Zealand-China relationship should be seen as a 'composite bilateral relationship' shaped jointly by economic interdependence, allied pressure and national identity. In the discussion session, teachers and students asked questions on the influence of businesses and interest groups, the role of scholars, the content of defence cooperation during the golden period, and differences in the China policy discourse of New Zealand and Australia.

Xu Shaomin delivered concluding remarks.

Commentary

The evolution of New Zealand's China policy presents both a risk warning and a strategic opportunity for local small and medium-sized business owners. Dr Zhang Mengdi's lecture systematically traced the shift in New Zealand-China relations from the 'golden period' to the 'complex balancing period', with the core contradiction lying in the structural tension between security dependence on the West and economic dependence on China. For New Zealand businesses, especially exporters reliant on the Chinese market, this tension means policy volatility may become the norm.

Take the dairy industry: Fonterra, New Zealand's largest co-operative, derives about 25 percent of its global revenue from its Greater China business, with China its largest single market. Although tariffs on infant formula were further reduced after the upgrade of the New Zealand-China free trade agreement, New Zealand's criticism of China's South China Sea activities in its defence policy document after 2018 and the Huawei 5G incident have shown that political and security issues may spill over into trade and economic areas. SMEs need to watch for hidden risks such as non-tariff barriers and shifts in consumer sentiment.

On the other hand, New Zealand's 'independent foreign policy' identity, such as its nuclear-free policy, has earned it a degree of political trust in the Chinese market, a differentiated advantage in the context of US-China competition. Australia's tougher China policy has led to some of its goods being replaced in the Chinese market by New Zealand products. New Zealand businesses should use this window to strengthen brand positioning in niche areas such as organic grass-fed milk powder and premium honey, while monitoring changes in Chinese domestic demand and supply chain diversification trends.

From an industry perspective, China is promoting diversification of import sources, and New Zealand needs to compete with suppliers from South America and Europe. Business owners are advised to establish policy scenario planning, incorporate geopolitical risk into supply chain decisions, and actively participate in New Zealand-China trade and economic dialogue mechanisms to reduce uncertainty.

Keywords: New Zealand's China policy, Zhang Mengdi, neoclassical realism, three stages of New Zealand-China relations, mixed-member proportional system, national identity, Huawei 5G incident, Oceania Research Workshop

Photo by Andrew-Art on Pixabay

Source: Belt and Road Research Institute, Sun Yat-sen University