Log Weekly: Typhoon Disruption, Low Stocks Persist

Summary

Sohu Hongye Futures' log weekly report, released on 28 October 2026, shows spot prices for 2.591m medium-A radiata pine logs at Rizhao port at RMB830/cubic metre, unchanged from the previous period, while 4m medium-A radiata pine logs at Taicang port were RMB810/cubic metre, down from the previous period. On the futures side, the main log 2701 contract settled at RMB804/cubic metre on 28 October, down from the previous period and trading weakly after the rollover. In the offshore market, as of 12 October 2026, October CFR quotes for New Zealand radiata pine logs ranged at USD132-137/JAS cubic metre, with the low end up USD4/JAS cubic metre and the high end up USD3/JAS cubic metre from the previous month, marking three consecutive rounds of increases, though the spot market has been slow to follow.

For early November, bulk freight rates for New Zealand-to-China imported softwood logs were USD46/JAS cubic metre, flat month on month. On the supply side, 14 New Zealand softwood log vessels are scheduled to arrive at 13 ports this week (26 October to 1 November), up 7 vessels or 100% from last week, with total arrivals of about 513,000 cubic metres, up 94% week on week; last week saw 7 actual vessel arrivals and 264,000 cubic metres, down 32% week on week. China imported 2.590 million cubic metres of logs and sawn timber in September 2026, with the January-September total at 40.434 million cubic metres, down 4.1% year on year; September softwood log imports were about 2.216 million cubic metres, up 11% year on year, with the January-September total at about 17.94 million cubic metres, down 0.4% year on year.

On inventories, as of 23 October total domestic softwood log stocks stood at 2.25 million cubic metres, down 90,000 cubic metres from last week, with radiata pine stocks at 1.60 million cubic metres, down 100,000 cubic metres. Earlier typhoon-related port closures at Taicang and fumigation in Shandong caused a gap in arrivals; this week arrivals doubled and supply shifted from tight to loose. On the demand side, average daily outbound volumes of softwood logs from 13 ports in 7 provinces were 67,800 cubic metres in the 19-25 October period, down 2.45% from last week, with Shandong at 39,600 cubic metres, up 2.59%, and Jiangsu at 21,200 cubic metres, down 17.51%.

Commentary

Offshore quotes for New Zealand radiata pine logs have risen for three consecutive rounds, but China's spot market has been slow to follow, creating a short-term conflict between low port inventories and doubled arrivals. As New Zealand's largest log export market, China accounts for more than 70% of New Zealand's total log exports, and radiata pine is the absolute mainstay of New Zealand's forestry exports. With its short rotation period and stable supply capacity, New Zealand radiata pine now accounts for more than 60% of China's softwood log imports, with import sources further concentrating on New Zealand.

For NZ SMEs, rising offshore CFR quotes reflect stronger pricing power for New Zealand exporters, but flat freight rates and falling Chinese spot prices mean Chinese buyers' margins are being squeezed, potentially prompting a shift to alternative sources such as Russia and Europe or reduced purchase volumes. Notably, China's September softwood log imports rose 11% year on year, but the January-September cumulative total was still down 0.4%, indicating no strong recovery in demand; average daily outbound volumes fell 2.45% week on week, with Jiangsu port outbound volumes plunging 17.51%, suggesting cautious purchasing by downstream processors. New Zealand forestry companies need to watch for the risk of a rapid build-up in Chinese port inventories from low levels; this week's arrivals rose 94% week on week, and if demand fails to recover in tandem, spot prices could come under further pressure, in turn forcing a pullback in offshore quotes.

For NZ small and medium-sized forestry exporters reliant on the Chinese market, it is advisable to monitor the lagged impact of Chinese property policies on construction timber demand and the trend of domestic Chinese substitution, while considering expansion into emerging markets such as India and Southeast Asia to diversify risk.

Keywords: logs, radiata pine, softwood logs, arrivals, inventory, futures, New Zealand, Taicang port, outbound volumes, freight rates

Photo by Frederic Hancke on Pexels

Source: Sina.com