China’s Economy Continues to Deliver Certainty Dividends

China's Economy Continues to Deliver Certainty Dividends

Summary

China's economy grew 4.7 percent year on year in the first half of 2026, with GDP reaching 69.6 trillion yuan — an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan, the largest first-half gain in five years. Imports and exports surpassed 25 trillion yuan for the first time, while manufacturing value added accounted for 26.2 percent of GDP and summer grain output exceeded 300 billion jin for the first time. Foreign investment in high-tech industries grew 33.2 percent, with its share hitting a record 42.4 percent.

The IMF raised its forecast for China's annual growth by 0.2 percentage points, and the World Bank maintained its projection. Mao Shengyong, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said the 4.7 percent growth was commendable for a super-large economy. Momentum in new quality productive forces strengthened, as intelligent computing power reached 2.8 times its year-ago level and downloads of domestic large models surpassed 10 billion.

China's contribution to global economic growth remained around 30 percent, providing steady certainty dividends to the world.

Commentary

China's first-half GDP growth of 4.7 percent — with the increment at a five-year high and manufacturing's share at 26.2 percent — points to resilience. Intelligent computing power climbed 2.8-fold year on year, and domestic large-model downloads topped 10 billion, underscoring the rise of new quality productive forces. For New Zealand SMEs, China's consumption upgrade and industrial transformation are reshaping demand patterns.

Traditional dairy exports, such as those from Fonterra, face competition from Australia, but niche markets for organic and grass-fed products still offer room. At the same time, China's surging exports of lithium batteries and wind turbines open supply-chain opportunities in green energy. New Zealand, with its strengths in agricultural technology and geothermal power, can pursue technical cooperation rather than relying solely on raw-material exports.

Foreign investment in high-tech industries grew 33.2 percent, reflecting recovering investor confidence. Local SMEs can leverage platforms like the China International Import Expo to tap into smart manufacturing and services consumption, seizing the window for 'China Opportunity 2.0'.

Keywords: China's economy, certainty dividends, GDP growth, imports and exports, new quality productive forces, foreign investment, high-quality development, macroeconomy


China's Economy Continues to Deliver Certainty Dividends
Image for illustration purposes

Source: China.org.cn

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