Trade and industrial collaboration prospects between China and Belt and Road resource-based countries — Part 1

Summary

2026-10-22 … | New Zealand | 82.6 | 9.5** | 66.7** | … Resource-based countries are important sources of energy, minerals and agricultural products for China, and key export markets for Chinese manufactured goods. … The rapid development of new economy industries has driven increased imports of upstream energy and industrial raw materials such as minerals and base metals, while agricultural imports have also been rising. … In recent years, China's imports of energy and agricultural products from resource-based countries have grown relatively fast … New Zealand's animal products accounted for 55.2 per cent and wood and wood products for 17.1 per cent.

… Agricultural imports have been rising, mainly concentrated in grains, cotton and meat. Driven by growth in beef and dairy imports, China's share of agricultural imports from Argentina and New Zealand rose by 24.4 and 10.3 percentage points respectively in 2022. In January–September 2022, imports from Argentina included beef worth USD 2.06 billion, barley USD 820 million, soybeans USD 610 million and sorghum USD 530 million; New Zealand's dairy and meat and other food products accounted for 49.0 per cent of its exports to China.

Commentary

The trade structure between China and Belt and Road resource-based countries is shifting from simple buying and selling to industrial collaboration. As an agricultural exporter, New Zealand sends 55.2 per cent animal products and 17.1 per cent wood products to China, making it highly dependent on the Chinese market. In 2022, New Zealand's share of China's agricultural imports rose 10.3 percentage points, driven mainly by beef and dairy, but this growth comes amid fierce competition from South American countries such as Argentina, which exports substantial volumes of beef, barley and soybeans to China.

New Zealand SMEs should recognise that China's demand from resource-based countries has moved from bulk raw materials to higher-value food and functional agricultural products. Giants such as Fonterra have already established local production in China, while smaller dairy and meat companies can focus on niche categories such as grass-fed, organic and pet food, using tariff preferences under the upgraded China–New Zealand free trade agreement to enter boutique retail and e-commerce channels in China's second- and third-tier cities. At the same time, China's demand for wood products is tied to the construction cycle, so New Zealand timber exporters need to watch changes in China's property policies and adjust their product mix accordingly, for example by shifting to furniture-grade or packaging materials.

Industrial collaboration between resource-based countries and China is deepening, and New Zealand companies should not be content with exporting raw materials but should participate in China's domestic supply chains, for example by partnering with local processors or reaching consumers directly through cross-border e-commerce, to reduce reliance on single commodity prices.

Keywords: Belt and Road, resource-based countries, agricultural imports, New Zealand, dairy products, beef, trade structure, industrial collaboration

Source: Three Cobblers Report