China’s Q3 RCEP Trade Grows Steadily, Quality Improves

Summary

China's trade with Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership members held broadly steady in the first three quarters of 2026. Customs data show imports and exports with ASEAN reached RMB 6.84 trillion, up 22.7 percent year on year, keeping ASEAN as China's largest trading partner. Xu Ningning, chief business expert for China-ASEAN, said in an interview on 14 October that three factors underpin the long-term growth of China-ASEAN trade: geographical proximity, low logistics costs and strong transport timeliness; the growing effects of infrastructure connectivity such as the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor and the China-Laos Railway; and the deep division of labour in manufacturing, agriculture and energy.

RCEP policy dividends are being implemented faster, with improved customs clearance efficiency and lower tariff costs further consolidating the foundation of bilateral trade, while the upcoming China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 will expand cooperation in the digital economy and green development. Beyond ASEAN, China's imports and exports with Japan rose 13 percent year on year in the first three quarters, with South Korea up 52.5 percent, Australia up 28.5 percent and New Zealand up 4.8 percent. Xu said RCEP, as the world's largest free trade area, has a mature and well-developed rule system and continues to release strong momentum for economic and trade cooperation.

He suggested that market entities of all kinds should accurately grasp RCEP rules such as tariff concessions, cumulative rules of origin and trade facilitation, and make precise arrangements based on the market characteristics of different countries to cultivate new growth points for foreign trade.

Commentary

Steady growth in China's trade with the RCEP region, especially the 22.7 percent increase with ASEAN, highlights the acceleration of regional supply chain integration. For New Zealand SMEs, the gap between China's 28.5 percent trade growth with Australia and only 4.8 percent with New Zealand is a cause for caution. Australia is moving faster to capture the Chinese market under the RCEP framework, particularly in dairy, meat and wine, putting pressure on New Zealand's traditional strengths.

RCEP cumulative rules of origin allow companies to source intermediate goods from multiple member states and enjoy preferential tariffs, offering New Zealand firms an opportunity to embed themselves in regional value chains, but only if they master the details of the rules. For example, a New Zealand food processor that sources some ingredients from ASEAN and then exports to China may lower tariff costs through the cumulative rules. However, New Zealand's export growth to China being below the regional average reflects insufficient depth in local firms' use of RCEP.

The upcoming China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 will create new demand through opening in the digital economy and green sectors; New Zealand has expertise in agricultural technology and clean technology and could explore models with ASEAN to jointly develop third-party markets. The RCEP region accounts for about 30 percent of global GDP, and continued reduction of internal trade barriers will reshape Asia-Pacific supply chains. If New Zealand does not integrate more proactively, it risks falling further behind in regional competition.

Keywords: RCEP, China-ASEAN trade, Xu Ningning, ASEAN largest trading partner, China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, tariff concessions, cumulative rules of origin, foreign trade steady growth and quality improvement

Source: China Free Trade Area Service Network