China’s Market Signals a Reshaping of Global Softwood Timber Trade

Summary

Global softwood log supply is entering a low-growth phase, with volumes projected to rise by only about 51.82 percent a year through 2035, below the pace of potential demand, according to Global Wood Trends' Global Softwood Log Supply Outlook. Parts of North America are constrained by labour, infrastructure and underinvestment; Europe by forest protection, sustainable harvesting rules and climate-related disasters; and Russia, despite vast forest resources, by export markets, logistics and infrastructure, leaving much of its resource base unable to translate into actual supply. China is a key window on these shifts.

In the first half of 2026, China imported about 51.81 million cubic metres of logs, down 51.80 percent year on year. Softwood logs accounted for about 11.62 million cubic metres, down 5.6 percent, while softwood sawn timber imports fell 20.2 percent. Average log import prices, however, rose about 4.7 percent, pointing to falling volumes and rising prices.

On supply, New Zealand remained China's largest log supplier, shipping about 9.1 million cubic metres in the first half of 2026, down 3.1 percent, a smaller decline than China's overall softwood log imports, keeping its share and position relatively stable. Over the same period, China's sawn timber imports from Russia fell about 21.8 percent to about 4.46 million cubic metres. German timber exports to China dropped 51.8 percent, pushing Germany out of China's top ten timber suppliers, while Canadian sawn timber exports to China rose about 10.8 percent.

China's market is not simply importing less; its supply mix is being reshuffled, with attention shifting from price to supply reliability, transport costs and sourcing risk. The deciding factors in the global softwood market are moving from whether forests are sufficient to whether timber can be harvested, processed, transported and ultimately sold at a reasonable cost into major consuming markets such as China. The years ahead are likely to bring very slow overall supply growth alongside rapid changes in supply structure, a shift from competition for resources to competition for accessible supply.

Commentary

The global softwood timber market is shifting from resource constraints to competition over supply chain resilience, a change that presents both challenges and opportunities for New Zealand's small and medium-sized businesses. As China's largest log supplier, New Zealand shipped 9.1 million cubic metres in the first half of 2026, down 3.1 percent year on year, a smaller decline than China's overall softwood log imports, keeping its market share stable. This reflects stable harvesting of New Zealand radiata pine, an efficient logistics system and zero tariffs under the New Zealand-China free trade agreement.

Yet China's softwood sawn timber imports fell 20.2 percent, reflecting stronger domestic processing capacity and a changing demand mix, a trend New Zealand sawn timber exporters need to watch. At the same time, supply from Russia and Germany fell sharply while Canadian sawn timber exports to China rose 10.8 percent, showing that supply sources are being reshuffled. New Zealand firms should capitalise on China's emphasis on supply reliability by strengthening long-term contracts and supply chain transparency, while exploring higher-value products such as engineered wood to counter log price volatility and intensifying competition.

Against a backdrop of low global supply growth, New Zealand's sustainable forestry management and geographic advantages will be key competitive factors.

Keywords: softwood logs, timber imports, New Zealand, supply structure, log prices, Russian sawn timber, Canadian sawn timber, Global Wood Trends

Summary in Chinese | 摘要

据Global Wood Trends发布的《全球针叶原木供应前景展望》报告，全球针叶原木供应正进入低增长阶段，到2035年供应量预计年均仅增长约0.5%，低于潜在需求增速。报告指出，北美部分地区受劳动力、基础设施和投资不足影响，欧洲受森林保护、可持续采伐及气候灾害制约，俄罗斯虽森林资源丰富但受出口市场、物流和基础设施限制，资源难以转化为实际供应。报告认为中国市场是观察全球针叶原木供需变化的重要窗口。

从进口数据看，2026年上半年中国进口原木约1588万立方米，同比下降5.4%；其中针叶原木约1162万立方米，同比下降5.6%，针叶锯材进口量同比下降20.2%，而原木平均进口价格却上涨约4.7%，呈现“量降、价升”特征。供应来源方面，新西兰仍是中国最大原木供应国，2026年上半年对华出口原木约910万立方米，同比下降3.1%，降幅小于中国整体针叶原木进口降幅，供应份额和地位仍较稳定；同期中国从俄罗斯进口锯材约446万立方米，同比下降21.8%；德国对华木材出口下降51.8%，跌出中国前十大木材供应国；加拿大锯材对华出口则增长约10.8%。文章认为，中国市场并非单纯“进口减少”，而是供应结构正在重新洗牌，关注点从价格转向货源稳定性、运输成本和供应风险。

全球针叶材市场的决定因素也从“森林资源够不够”转向“能不能采、能不能加工、能不能运出来、最终能不能以合理成本卖到中国等主要消费市场”，未来可能呈现总供应增长很慢但供应结构变化很快的特征，正从“资源竞争”转向“可获得供应竞争”。

Commentary in Chinese | 评论

全球针叶木材市场正从资源约束转向供应链韧性竞争，这一变化对新西兰中小企业既是挑战也是机遇。新西兰作为中国最大原木供应国，2026年上半年对华出口910万立方米，同比下降3.1%，但降幅小于中国整体针叶原木进口降幅，市场份额保持稳定。这得益于新西兰辐射松的稳定采伐和高效物流体系，以及中新自贸协定下的零关税优势。

然而，中国针叶锯材进口量下降20.2%，反映出中国国内加工能力提升和需求结构变化，新西兰锯材出口商需关注这一趋势。与此同时，俄罗斯、德国供应大幅下滑，加拿大锯材对华出口增长10.8%，显示供应来源正在重新洗牌。新西兰企业应把握中国对货源稳定性的重视，强化长期合同和供应链透明度，同时探索高附加值产品如工程木制品，以应对原木价格波动和竞争加剧。

全球供应低增长背景下，新西兰的可持续林业管理和地理优势将成为关键竞争要素。

关键词: 针叶原木, 木材进口, 新西兰, 供应结构, 原木价格, 俄罗斯锯材, 加拿大锯材, Global Wood Trends

Source: Timber Network