NZ wine exports: China volume jumps 72%, average price falls 27.7%

Summary

New Zealand Winegrowers (NZW) has released its annual report for FY2026 (July 2025 to June 2026), showing wine export volume of 306 million litres, up 18.303 percent year on year, and export value of NZD 18.302 billion (about RMB 18.301 billion), up 18.300 percent. Mainland China was the fastest-growing market, with export volume up 11.69 percent and export value up 11.68 percent, while the average price fell 11.67 percent year on year, indicating a shift in product mix. By market, the largest single market, the United States, saw export value fall from NZD 762 million to NZD 721 million, down 11.66 percent, and volume fall from 11.65 million litres to 11.64 million litres, down 11.63 percent; NZW said the US market continues to face the impact of 'different tariffs'.

UK export volume rose 11.62 percent to 11.61 million litres and value rose 11.60 percent to NZD 427 million. Canada's export value rose 5.4 percent to NZD 186 million, volume rose 14.2 percent to 17.41 million litres, and the average price reached NZD 10.68 per litre. In Asia, Singapore's export value rose 17.8 percent to NZD 29.23 million and Japan's rose 7.1 percent to NZD 18.30 million, while Hong Kong SAR export value fell 11.6 percent to NZD 16.75 million.

On the supply side, New Zealand crushed 440,000 tonnes of grapes in 2026, down 15 percent year on year; the average grape price fell for a second consecutive year, from a 2023 peak of NZD 2,405 per tonne to NZD 1,850 per tonne in 2025, a cumulative decline of 23 percent. NZW chair Fabian Yukich said some growers and wineries have decided to mothball or remove vineyards. Sauvignon Blanc plantings rose from 28,702 hectares to 30,206 hectares, while Pinot Noir shrank from 5,331 hectares to 5,000 hectares.

NZW said the industry is undergoing a 'deliberate reset of the supply base' and that rebalancing will take time.

Commentary

The New Zealand wine industry is undergoing structural adjustment, with export volume rising and value edging up in FY2026 amid sharp divergence across global markets. Mainland China's export volume surged 72 percent, but the average price fell 27.7 percent, indicating that more lower- and mid-range products are entering the Chinese market, potentially squeezing the margins of small and medium-sized wineries. For New Zealand SME owners, this trend presents both opportunity and challenge: on one hand, rapid volume growth in China provides an export channel for wineries with surplus capacity; on the other, falling average prices may erode brand premium and, over time, affect New Zealand wine's premium image.

Against the industry backdrop, Sauvignon Blanc plantings continue to expand to 30,206 hectares while varieties such as Pinot Noir contract, and the pain of a deliberate supply-side reset persists. The US market declined under tariff pressure, while the UK and Canada performed steadily, with Canada's average price reaching NZD 10.68 per litre, underscoring its premium positioning. The joint promotional activities between NZW and Wine Australia are worth emulating, and SMEs could look to such partnerships to reduce market-entry costs.

China's volume-up, price-down trend may be linked to e-commerce channels and the promotion of entry-level products, and companies need to balance short-term volume growth with long-term brand building. Grape prices have fallen 23 percent over two years, and some growers have already mothballed vineyards; industry consolidation may accelerate, and SMEs should assess the stability of their own supply chains. Looking ahead, as supply rebalancing progresses, average export prices may gradually stabilise, but price competition in the Chinese market may persist, and companies are advised to focus on niche categories or differentiated marketing to maintain margins.

Keywords: New Zealand wine, FY2026 exports, mainland China market, average export price, Sauvignon Blanc, grape crush, supply rebalancing, US market, NZW annual report

Source: Wealth Account