China’s softwood market recovery takes hold

Summary

China's softwood log imports are showing clear signs of recovery in 2026, with 13.7502 million cubic metres imported in the first seven months of the year, narrowing the year-on-year decline to 3.78 percent. July imports alone reached 2.0913 million cubic metres, up 7.07 percent year on year — the first positive monthly reading of the year, and a sign that domestic softwood demand has bottomed out. The data was released on 17 September 2026.

Wood industry reports over the same period show radiata pine continuing to dominate the softwood market, while the mix of China's softwood suppliers is shifting. Offshore, Russia's timber exports to China account for 77 percent of that trade. Australia plans to close loopholes in the Russian timber trade by imposing a 35 percent tariff on any product containing Russian material, with multiple parties pressing for tariffs on Russian timber plywood processed in China and the Senate urging that timber be added to sanctions lists on Russia.

The US plans to add a further 7.5 percent tariff on Chinese goods. German state forest timber prices rose 13.9 percent year on year, with oak and beech diverging, and Canada has imposed counter-tariffs of up to 50 percent on US wood products.

Commentary

After a long contraction, China's softwood log imports rose 7.07 percent year on year in July — the first positive monthly reading of the year. For New Zealand's forestry sector, built on radiata pine, that is a signal worth unpacking. Radiata pine holds the largest share of China's softwood log imports and enters duty-free under the NZ-China free trade agreement, making it a key source for formwork, packaging timber and furniture components.

Firmer demand feeds directly into marginally better export orders. But imports for the first seven months are still down 3.78 percent, so this is an early-stage recovery. Downstream property and infrastructure demand has not fully recovered, and firms should not expand capacity too aggressively.

On the supply side, global timber trade policy is redrawing the competitive map. Australia plans a 35 percent tariff on timber containing Russian material and is pushing for tariffs on Russian timber plywood processed in China. That may squeeze low-cost Russian timber's re-export routes and prompt some Chinese importers to buy more NZ radiata pine.

Yet Russian timber accounts for 77 percent of that trade, so full substitution is unrealistic in the short term, and Russian material may still flow in through other channels. NZ exporters should watch origin-compliance risk to ensure their product is not caught up. Meanwhile, the US plans to add another 7.5 percent tariff on Chinese goods, which could weigh on China's export manufacturing and, indirectly, on packaging timber demand.

Canada's counter-tariffs of up to 50 percent on US wood products could divert Canadian softwood towards Asian markets, adding supply competition. German state forest timber prices are up 13.9 percent year on year, lifting landed costs for European softwood, so radiata pine retains an edge on price and shipping distance. For smaller firms, a practical option is small-lot spot inventory at major ports in east and south China, serving smaller buyers in tier-two and tier-three cities who need immediate supply — and watching whether monthly import data posts three consecutive months of growth before adjusting capacity.

Keywords: softwood, softwood log imports, 13.7502 million cubic metres, July imports up 7.07 percent year on year, year-on-year decline narrowed to 3.78 percent, first positive growth of the year, market recovery, radiata pine, Russian timber exports to China at 77 percent, timber tariffs

Source: China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association