China’s softwood market recovery takes hold

Summary

China's softwood log imports are showing clear signs of recovery in 2026, with 13.7502 million cubic metres imported in the first seven months of the year, narrowing the year-on-year decline to 3.78 percent. July imports alone reached 2.0913 million cubic metres, up 7.07 percent year on year — the first positive monthly reading of the year, and a sign that domestic softwood demand has bottomed out. The data was released on 17 September 2026.

Wood industry reports over the same period show radiata pine continuing to dominate the softwood market, while the mix of China's softwood suppliers is shifting. Offshore, Russia's timber exports to China account for 77 percent of that trade. Australia plans to close loopholes in the Russian timber trade by imposing a 35 percent tariff on any product containing Russian material, with multiple parties pressing for tariffs on Russian timber plywood processed in China and the Senate urging that timber be added to sanctions lists on Russia.

The US plans to add a further 7.5 percent tariff on Chinese goods. German state forest timber prices rose 13.9 percent year on year, with oak and beech diverging, and Canada has imposed counter-tariffs of up to 50 percent on US wood products.

Commentary

After a long contraction, China's softwood log imports rose 7.07 percent year on year in July — the first positive monthly reading of the year. For New Zealand's forestry sector, built on radiata pine, that is a signal worth unpacking. Radiata pine holds the largest share of China's softwood log imports and enters duty-free under the NZ-China free trade agreement, making it a key source for formwork, packaging timber and furniture components.

Firmer demand feeds directly into marginally better export orders. But imports for the first seven months are still down 3.78 percent, so this is an early-stage recovery. Downstream property and infrastructure demand has not fully recovered, and firms should not expand capacity too aggressively.

On the supply side, global timber trade policy is redrawing the competitive map. Australia plans a 35 percent tariff on timber containing Russian material and is pushing for tariffs on Russian timber plywood processed in China. That may squeeze low-cost Russian timber's re-export routes and prompt some Chinese importers to buy more NZ radiata pine.

Yet Russian timber accounts for 77 percent of that trade, so full substitution is unrealistic in the short term, and Russian material may still flow in through other channels. NZ exporters should watch origin-compliance risk to ensure their product is not caught up. Meanwhile, the US plans to add another 7.5 percent tariff on Chinese goods, which could weigh on China's export manufacturing and, indirectly, on packaging timber demand.

Canada's counter-tariffs of up to 50 percent on US wood products could divert Canadian softwood towards Asian markets, adding supply competition. German state forest timber prices are up 13.9 percent year on year, lifting landed costs for European softwood, so radiata pine retains an edge on price and shipping distance. For smaller firms, a practical option is small-lot spot inventory at major ports in east and south China, serving smaller buyers in tier-two and tier-three cities who need immediate supply — and watching whether monthly import data posts three consecutive months of growth before adjusting capacity.

Keywords: softwood, softwood log imports, 13.7502 million cubic metres, July imports up 7.07 percent year on year, year-on-year decline narrowed to 3.78 percent, first positive growth of the year, market recovery, radiata pine, Russian timber exports to China at 77 percent, timber tariffs

Summary in Chinese | 摘要

进入2026年，我国针叶材市场修复态势明显：1—7月针叶原木累计进口1375.02万立方米，同比降幅收窄至3.78%；7月单月进口209.13万立方米，同比增长7.07%，实现年内首次正增长，标志国内针叶木需求底部回暖。该数据发布于2026年9月17日。同期木业资讯显示，辐射松持续主导针叶材市场，中国针叶材供应国发生改变；国际方面，俄罗斯木材对华出口占比达77%，澳大利亚拟堵俄木材贸易漏洞，凡含俄材一律征收35%关税，澳多党派施压要求对中国境内胶合加工的俄罗斯木材加征关税，澳大利亚参议院敦促将木材纳入对俄制裁清单，美国则拟对中国商品再加征7.5%关税。

此外，德国国有林木材价格同比上涨13.9%，橡木与山毛榉走势分化；加拿大对美国木制品征收最高50%的反制关税。

Commentary in Chinese | 评论

中国针叶材进口在经历长期收缩后，7月单月同比增长7.07%，实现年内首次正增长，对以辐射松为支柱的新西兰林业而言，是一个值得拆分的信号。新西兰辐射松占中国针叶原木进口的主要份额，并享受中新自贸协定下的零关税待遇，是中国建筑模板、包装材和家具部件的重要来源。需求回暖直接利好出口订单的边际改善，但1—7月累计进口仍同比下降3.78%，意味着修复尚处早期，下游房地产和基建需求并未全面复苏，企业不宜过度扩产。

从供应端看，全球木材贸易政策正在重塑竞争格局。澳大利亚拟对含俄木材征收35%关税，并推动对中国境内胶合加工的俄罗斯木材加征关税，这可能压缩低价俄材的转口空间，促使部分中国进口商增加对新西兰辐射松的采购。然而俄罗斯木材对华出口占比高达77%，短期内完全替代不现实，且俄材可能通过其他渠道变相流入，新西兰出口商需关注原产地合规风险，确保自身产品不被误伤。

另一方面，美国拟对中国商品再加征7.5%关税，可能拖累中国出口制造业景气，间接影响包装用木材需求；加拿大对美国木制品征收最高50%反制关税，则可能促使加拿大针叶材转向亚洲市场，增加供应竞争。德国国有林木材价格同比上涨13.9%，抬高了欧洲针叶材到岸成本，新西兰辐射松在价格和运距上仍有优势。对中小企业来说，可在中国华东、华南主要港口布局小批量现货库存，服务二三线城市中小买家即时采购，并紧盯月度进口数据是否连续三个月正增长，再决定产能调整。

关键词: 针叶材, 针叶原木进口, 1375.02万立方米, 7月进口同比增长7.07%, 同比降幅收窄至3.78%, 年内首次正增长, 市场修复, 辐射松, 俄木材对华出口占比77%, 木材关税

Source: China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association