Summary
Economists including Luo Zhiheng of Yuekai Securities forecast China's export growth to slow to 4% (USD-denominated) in 2026, still above the global average, with export share rising from 14.6% in 2024 to 15.5%. In 2025, exports grew 5.0%, surpassing expectations due to non-US markets (cumulative boost of 6.0 percentage points from Africa, ASEAN, India from Jan-Nov), with intermediate and capital goods up 9.7% and 6.0% year-on-year as core drivers. Support in 2026 comes from industrialisation in emerging markets (Africa, ASEAN, Latin America) driving demand for industrial and intermediate goods, ASEAN's and Chinese overseas firms' reliance on key intermediates, and global AI computing power investment boosting electrical equipment exports.
However, slower global trade momentum (WTO projects only 0.5% trade volume growth in 2026), base effects, and potential trade barriers will slow export growth. By market, the US drag narrows (Sino-US tariff war may ease temporarily, US loose monetary and fiscal policy stimulates demand), while non-US market support moderates (ASEAN, Latin America re-export dividends fade, high base, EU carbon tariffs raise costs). Policy suggestions: deepen domestic reforms and industrial upgrading, expand high-standard opening-up internationally.
Risk warnings: escalation of Sino-US tariff war, global trade uncertainty, geopolitical risks.
Commentary
The outlook for China's exports has dual implications for New Zealand small and medium enterprise (SME) owners. On one hand, China's export resilience stems from the global competitiveness of intermediate and capital goods, meaning local NZ manufacturers may face fiercer import competition—Chinese machinery, industrial components, and other products have clear price advantages, potentially squeezing NZ SMEs' market share. On the other hand, China's export structure upgrade boosts demand for high-quality raw materials and agricultural products, supporting NZ's dairy, meat, and fruit exports to China.
While China imports agricultural goods from emerging markets like ASEAN and Latin America, its preference for premium food still gives NZ brands pricing power. Notably, EU carbon tariffs and other new rules raise China's export costs to Europe, potentially diverting Chinese exporters to other markets, allowing NZ's preferential access to Europe (e.g., via free trade agreements) to maintain a relative advantage. Additionally, if the Sino-US tariff war eases, Chinese consumer purchasing power may recover, indirectly benefiting NZ tourism and education exports.
SMEs should monitor China's intermediate goods import lists (e.g., mechanical parts, chemical raw materials) to assess supply chain dependence on China, while seizing opportunities from the upgraded NZ-China FTA to expand high-end food promotion via e-commerce and exhibitions. Conclusion: China's export growth may slow in 2026 but trade volumes remain large; NZ firms should differentiate on quality in niche areas to avoid direct price competition with Chinese exports.
Keywords: China's exports, resilience, tariffs, market diversification, intermediate goods, capital goods, non-US markets, export growth, Yuekai Securities, Luo Zhiheng
Source: Tencent News
Disclaimer: This article is compiled from publicly available sources for general information only. The analysis and commentary are editorial opinions. MiDeer Observer does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Readers should seek independent professional advice before relying on this content, or contact us for more information.
