Summary
New Zealand's election countdown has made China policy a core issue no party can avoid. Data shows that in 2000, New Zealand's goods exports to China were just 3.3 percent of total exports; by 2021, that share exceeded 32 percent. Even after recent declines, exports to China in 2025 are still close to NZ$20 billion (about RMB 74.8 billion).
New Zealand became the first developed country to sign a free trade agreement with China in 2008. Key industries are heavily dependent on the Chinese market: dairy giant Fonterra derives about one-third of its revenue from China, and Ministry for Primary Industries data shows 54 percent of the country's forestry product exports go to China. One focus of the election campaign is Foreign Minister and NZ First leader Winston Peters.
In October 2024, the New Zealand Navy vessel HMNZS Manawanui ran aground and sank near Samoa; an investigation found human error directly caused the incident. NZ First candidate and former Defence Minister Ron Mark blamed the accident on diversity, equity and inclusion policies in a campaign video. Peters later defended the advertisement and questioned the qualifications of the ship's female captain, Yvonne Gray, but the military accident investigation report did not list DEI policies as a cause.
Opportunities Party leader Chlöe Swarbrick criticised Peters' remarks as sexist. She became party leader in 2025 and said in August she would not support Peters continuing as foreign minister; on 28 October she said she was seriously considering ruling out cooperation with NZ First. In July, Peters made discriminatory remarks to Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan, who was born in China, telling him to "go back to your own country"; the Chinese Embassy in New Zealand subsequently lodged a solemn representation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Peters responded that NZ First had already ruled out working with the Opportunities Party. Swarbrick said she would prioritise negotiations with the party that wins the most seats; Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with the Opportunities Party. The latest polls show the current governing coalition may just secure a majority, or may need support from other parties.
Commentary
With New Zealand's election approaching, China policy has become an issue no party can avoid. As New Zealand's largest trading partner, China's weight is clear in the data: exports to China were just 3.3 percent in 2000, exceeded 32 percent in 2021, and remain close to NZ$20 billion in 2025. Fonterra gets about one-third of its revenue from China, and 54 percent of forestry product exports go to China.
Behind these figures are the livelihoods of countless farms, forestry operations and small and medium-sized enterprises. For SME owners, whichever party takes office, the stability of the trade and economic relationship with China directly affects orders, logistics and cash flow. Notably, NZ First leader Peters' recent discriminatory remarks about a Chinese-New Zealand MP and his controversial comments on the naval accident have triggered diplomatic representations and added uncertainty to coalition talks.
Opportunities Party leader Chlöe Swarbrick has made clear she will not support Peters continuing as foreign minister, which could complicate coalition negotiations for a National-led government. If NZ First retains the foreign affairs portfolio, China-New Zealand relations could face more uncertainty, affecting trade facilitation measures and business confidence. On the other hand, if Labour or the Opportunities Party is part of a government, it may be more inclined to handle relations with China pragmatically, but policy continuity still needs to be watched.
SMEs should closely monitor the foreign minister appointment and China policy direction after the election, especially factors that directly affect trade costs such as tariffs, quarantine standards and visa policy. At the same time, they could consider diversifying market risks, but in the short term China's market size and complementarity are hard to replace. New Zealand dairy products, timber and tourism services still have room to grow in China, but potential political interference with consumer sentiment and business cooperation should be watched.
The election result will not only determine the shape of the government but also set the tone for China-New Zealand trade and economic relations over the next three years.
Keywords: New Zealand election, exports to China, Peters, coalition negotiations, Fonterra, free trade agreement, Chlöe Swarbrick, HMNZS Manawanui, forestry exports, dairy products
Photo by TheDigitalArtist on Pixabay
Source: Xilu Network
Disclaimer: This article is compiled from publicly available sources for general information only. The analysis and commentary are editorial opinions. MiDeer Observer does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. Readers should seek independent professional advice before relying on this content, or contact us for more information.
