What China’s log imports reveal about the global softwood market

Summary

Global softwood log supply is expected to grow by only about 51.82 percent a year to 2035, trailing the pace of potential demand, Global Wood Trends says in its Global Softwood Log Supply Outlook report. Supply growth is similarly constrained across the main producing regions. Parts of North America are held back by labour shortages and inadequate infrastructure and investment, Europe by forest protection, sustainable harvesting rules and climate-related damage, and Russia, despite its vast forest resources, by export markets, logistics and infrastructure that limit how much timber actually reaches the market.

China is emerging as an important window on how global softwood log supply and demand are shifting. On import structure, China imported about 51.81 million cubic metres of logs in the first half of 2026, down 51.80 percent year on year. Softwood logs accounted for about 11.62 million cubic metres, down 5.6 percent, while softwood sawn timber imports fell 20.2 percent.

Average log import prices, however, rose about 4.7 percent, producing a lower volumes, higher prices pattern. On supply sources, New Zealand remained China's largest log supplier, shipping about 9.10 million cubic metres in the first half of 2026, down 3.1 percent. That decline was smaller than the fall in China's overall softwood log imports, leaving New Zealand's supply share and position relatively stable.

Over the same period China imported about 4.46 million cubic metres of sawn timber from Russia, down 21.8 percent. German wood exports to China fell 51.8 percent, dropping Germany out of China's top ten wood suppliers, while Canadian sawn timber exports to China rose about 10.8 percent, indicating that some supply flows are being redirected. China's market, then, is not simply importing less.

Its supply structure is being reshuffled, and the industry's focus is shifting from price to the reliability of supply, transport costs and supply risk. The deciding factor in the global softwood market is moving from whether there are enough forest resources to whether timber can be harvested, processed and shipped out, and ultimately sold at a reasonable cost into China and other major consuming markets. The years ahead are likely to bring very slow growth in total supply alongside rapid change in supply structure, with competition over resources giving way to competition over accessible supply.

Commentary

Softwood log supply growing at just 0.5 percent a year, well short of potential demand, means the next decade of the timber trade will be defined less by how much forest a country holds than by whether it can harvest, process and ship reliably to the major consuming markets. China's first-half 2026 numbers make the point: softwood log imports fell 5.6 percent, average prices rose 4.7 percent and sawn timber imports dropped 20.2 percent. Chinese buyers, in other words, are leaning towards logs they can process at home and are willing to pay a premium for dependable supply.

New Zealand, the largest supplier, shipped 9.1 million cubic metres to China in the first half, about 78 percent of China's total softwood log imports, with volumes down just 3.1 percent. That is a stable share, and it underlines radiata pine's advantages in voyage distance, supply reliability and cost. For NZ SMEs the log export segment still looks resilient in the near term.

The caveat is Canada, whose sawn timber exports to China rose 10.8 percent, evidence that some demand is shifting from logs to sawn timber and diversifying by origin. Exporters that stay wedded to logs alone risk missing out on the processing value-add. From the importer's side, with Russian logistics constrained and German volumes halved, New Zealand supply carries more strategic weight.

Long-term contracts and sustainable forest certification become bargaining chips, and smaller exporters can lock in premium customers by offering carbon footprint data or FSC certification. On the risk side, a weak Chinese property recovery is weighing on softwood sawn timber demand. Add volatile global freight rates and movements in the renminbi, and NZ forest owners and exporters need to watch Chinese port log inventory cycles, adopt flexible pricing or hedging tools, and explore alternative markets such as Japan, South Korea and India to spread cashflow risk.

Every one percentage point fall in China's softwood log imports costs New Zealand exporters about 90,000 cubic metres of orders, and the more immediate effect is that harvesting schedules and cashflow at North Island small and medium-sized forests can be knocked out of step. That is worth watching more closely than any price movement alone.

Keywords: softwood logs, China imports, New Zealand, sawn timber imports, supply structure, Russia, Canada, global softwood market, log prices, supply competition

Source: China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association