What China’s log imports reveal about the global softwood market

Summary

Global softwood log supply is expected to grow by only about 51.82 percent a year to 2035, trailing the pace of potential demand, Global Wood Trends says in its Global Softwood Log Supply Outlook report. Supply growth is similarly constrained across the main producing regions. Parts of North America are held back by labour shortages and inadequate infrastructure and investment, Europe by forest protection, sustainable harvesting rules and climate-related damage, and Russia, despite its vast forest resources, by export markets, logistics and infrastructure that limit how much timber actually reaches the market.

China is emerging as an important window on how global softwood log supply and demand are shifting. On import structure, China imported about 51.81 million cubic metres of logs in the first half of 2026, down 51.80 percent year on year. Softwood logs accounted for about 11.62 million cubic metres, down 5.6 percent, while softwood sawn timber imports fell 20.2 percent.

Average log import prices, however, rose about 4.7 percent, producing a lower volumes, higher prices pattern. On supply sources, New Zealand remained China's largest log supplier, shipping about 9.10 million cubic metres in the first half of 2026, down 3.1 percent. That decline was smaller than the fall in China's overall softwood log imports, leaving New Zealand's supply share and position relatively stable.

Over the same period China imported about 4.46 million cubic metres of sawn timber from Russia, down 21.8 percent. German wood exports to China fell 51.8 percent, dropping Germany out of China's top ten wood suppliers, while Canadian sawn timber exports to China rose about 10.8 percent, indicating that some supply flows are being redirected. China's market, then, is not simply importing less.

Its supply structure is being reshuffled, and the industry's focus is shifting from price to the reliability of supply, transport costs and supply risk. The deciding factor in the global softwood market is moving from whether there are enough forest resources to whether timber can be harvested, processed and shipped out, and ultimately sold at a reasonable cost into China and other major consuming markets. The years ahead are likely to bring very slow growth in total supply alongside rapid change in supply structure, with competition over resources giving way to competition over accessible supply.

Commentary

Softwood log supply growing at just 0.5 percent a year, well short of potential demand, means the next decade of the timber trade will be defined less by how much forest a country holds than by whether it can harvest, process and ship reliably to the major consuming markets. China's first-half 2026 numbers make the point: softwood log imports fell 5.6 percent, average prices rose 4.7 percent and sawn timber imports dropped 20.2 percent. Chinese buyers, in other words, are leaning towards logs they can process at home and are willing to pay a premium for dependable supply.

New Zealand, the largest supplier, shipped 9.1 million cubic metres to China in the first half, about 78 percent of China's total softwood log imports, with volumes down just 3.1 percent. That is a stable share, and it underlines radiata pine's advantages in voyage distance, supply reliability and cost. For NZ SMEs the log export segment still looks resilient in the near term.

The caveat is Canada, whose sawn timber exports to China rose 10.8 percent, evidence that some demand is shifting from logs to sawn timber and diversifying by origin. Exporters that stay wedded to logs alone risk missing out on the processing value-add. From the importer's side, with Russian logistics constrained and German volumes halved, New Zealand supply carries more strategic weight.

Long-term contracts and sustainable forest certification become bargaining chips, and smaller exporters can lock in premium customers by offering carbon footprint data or FSC certification. On the risk side, a weak Chinese property recovery is weighing on softwood sawn timber demand. Add volatile global freight rates and movements in the renminbi, and NZ forest owners and exporters need to watch Chinese port log inventory cycles, adopt flexible pricing or hedging tools, and explore alternative markets such as Japan, South Korea and India to spread cashflow risk.

Every one percentage point fall in China's softwood log imports costs New Zealand exporters about 90,000 cubic metres of orders, and the more immediate effect is that harvesting schedules and cashflow at North Island small and medium-sized forests can be knocked out of step. That is worth watching more closely than any price movement alone.

Keywords: softwood logs, China imports, New Zealand, sawn timber imports, supply structure, Russia, Canada, global softwood market, log prices, supply competition

Summary in Chinese | 摘要

据Global Wood Trends发布的《全球针叶原木供应前景展望》报告，到2035年全球针叶原木供应量预计年均仅增长约0.5%，低于潜在需求增速。报告指出，主要产区供应增长同样受限：北美部分地区受劳动力、基础设施和投资不足影响，欧洲受森林保护、可持续采伐及气候灾害制约，俄罗斯虽拥有大量森林资源，但出口市场、物流和基础设施等问题限制了资源转化为实际供应。报告认为，中国市场正成为观察全球针叶原木供需变化的重要窗口。

进口结构方面，2026年上半年中国进口原木约1588万立方米，同比下降5.4%；其中针叶原木约1162万立方米，同比下降5.6%，针叶锯材进口量同比下降20.2%，而原木平均进口价格却上涨约4.7%，呈现“量降、价升”特征。供应来源方面，新西兰仍是中国最大的原木供应国，2026年上半年向中国出口原木约910万立方米，同比下降3.1%，降幅小于中国针叶原木进口整体降幅，其供应份额和地位仍较为稳定。同期中国从俄罗斯进口锯材约446万立方米，同比下降21.8%；德国对华木材出口下降51.8%，跌出中国前十大木材供应国；加拿大锯材对华出口则增长约10.8%，部分供应正在重新调整流向。

由此看，中国市场并非单纯“进口减少”，而是供应结构正在重新洗牌，行业关注点也从价格转向货源稳定性、运输成本和供应风险。全球针叶材市场的决定因素正从“森林资源够不够”变为“能不能采、能不能加工、能不能运出来、最终能否以合理成本卖到中国等主要消费市场”，未来或呈现总供应增长很慢、供应结构变化很快的特征，由“资源竞争”逐步转向“可获得供应竞争”。

Commentary in Chinese | 评论

全球针叶原木供应增速仅0.5%，远低于潜在需求，意味着未来十年木材市场将从“有多少森林资源”转向“能否稳定采伐、加工并运到主要消费市场”。中国市场2026上半年针叶原木进口下降5.6%但均价上涨4.7%，锯材进口暴跌20.2%，反映出中国买家更倾向采购原木在国内加工，并愿意为可靠货源支付溢价。新西兰作为最大供应国，上半年对华原木出口910万立方米，占中国针叶原木进口总量约78%，降幅仅3.1%，份额稳固，凸显出辐射松在航程、供应稳定性和成本上的优势。

对NZ SME而言，原木出口板块短期仍具韧性，但需注意加拿大锯材对华出口增长10.8%，显示部分需求正从原木转向锯材且来源多元化，若继续依赖单一原木出口可能错失加工增值环节。从中国进口商视角，在俄罗斯物流受限、德国出口腰斩背景下，新西兰货源的战略价值上升，长期合约和可持续森林认证将成为议价筹码，中小出口商可主动提供碳足迹数据或FSC认证以锁定高端客户。风险方面，中国房地产复苏乏力导致针叶锯材需求疲软，叠加全球运费波动和人民币汇率变化，新西兰林场主和出口商需关注中国港口原木库存周期，采用弹性定价或套期保值工具，并探索日本、韩国、印度等替代市场以分散现金流风险。

当中国针叶原木进口量每下降1个百分点，新西兰出口商约损失9万立方米订单，更直接的影响是北岛中小林场的采伐计划与现金流节奏可能被打乱，这比单纯的价格涨跌更值得警惕。

关键词: 针叶原木, 中国进口, 新西兰, 锯材进口, 供应结构, 俄罗斯, 加拿大, 全球针叶材市场, 原木价格, 供应竞争

Source: China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association