Two-Year Timber Price Review: Radiata Pine Logs Hold Ground as China Demand Shifts

Summary

Mysteel's timber channel continues to publish two-year timber price data and national spot quotations. As of 17 October 2026, the page showed Radiata pine log quotes at Rizhao Port: P30 grade at RMB 1,000, 3.9m KIS grade at RMB 700, 5.9m Medium A grade at RMB 850, 3.9m KI grade at RMB 780, and 5.9m Small A grade at RMB 780. The market section updated Shandong log prices daily from 29 September to 16 October 2026.

In news briefs: Statistics Canada reported that wood product manufacturers' sales rose 2.8 percent month-on-month to CAD 3.10 billion in August, up 4.2 percent year-on-year on an unadjusted basis compared with August 2025; China Railway 11th Bureau Group issued a public tender for timber procurement for the Xiong'an levee and pump station project, covering 1,650 cubic metres of square timber and 39,000 pieces of wooden formwork, with bids closing on 29 October 2026; Cameroon's president directed an expansion of the log export ban, adding new species to the existing 91 restricted timber varieties, while 23 'promoted species' will be subject to an additional export tax; Silvia Melegari, secretary-general of Italy's CEIBois, noted that EUDR implementation has forced more than 3,000 European timber enterprises to upgrade supply chain traceability systems. China's timber self-sufficiency is improving, and New Zealand exporters are accelerating market diversification. In the first half of the year, New Zealand's log export volume to China fell 3.1 percent, while China's new construction starts by property developers dropped 24 percent year-on-year in January–July.

In 2025, China's share of Myanmar's timber exports rose to 74.1 percent, with teak accounting for 79 percent of the export value of Myanmar's timber. In the first seven months of 2026, China imported 110,000 cubic metres of Myanmar teak sawn timber, up 240 percent year-on-year.

Commentary

Price fluctuations for New Zealand Radiata pine in the Chinese market reflect deeper adjustments in the global timber trade landscape. Rizhao Port's P30 grade Radiata pine quote of RMB 1,000 per cubic metre is about 15 percent below the 2024 peak, yet New Zealand logs still dominate China's imported softwood supply. China's new construction starts fell 24 percent year-on-year, directly dampening demand for construction timber, while rising domestic timber self-sufficiency is further squeezing import space.

New Zealand's log export volume to China fell 3.1 percent in the first half, but export value recovered in August, with renminbi appreciation partly offsetting the volume decline. For small and medium-sized New Zealand forestry firms, the near-term priority is to watch for marginal changes in Chinese construction policy stimulus while accelerating expansion into India and Southeast Asia. Although Indian demand is weak in the short term, its urbanisation and housing programmes will drive long-term growth.

On another front, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is forcing European timber companies to upgrade supply chain traceability systems. As a compliant timber supplier, New Zealand is well positioned to capture premiums in high-end markets. However, rising compliance costs may also be passed on to exporters, making early investment in digital traceability systems necessary.

Events such as Cameroon's expanded log export ban and the concentration of Myanmar's teak trade toward China indicate that global timber supply is accelerating regionalisation, with both substitution risks and opportunities for New Zealand Radiata pine.

Keywords: timber prices, Radiata pine logs, Rizhao Port, timber market, New Zealand logs, Myanmar teak, EUDR, engineered wood panels

Source: Mysteel