Summary
As of 19 August, the main log futures contract (September 2026) settled at 819 yuan per cubic metre, down from the prior period. Radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port held at 800 yuan per cubic metre, while Taicang Port prices inched up to the same level.
Commentary
New Zealand radiata pine accounts for over 60 percent of China's softwood log imports, and the market is currently caught between firm costs and weak demand. International CFR prices remain solid at US$125-130 per JAS cubic metre, with ocean freight steady at US$44 per JAS cubic metre, underpinning New Zealand export costs. However, China's combined log and sawn timber imports fell 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first seven months, reflecting weak end-user demand and resistance to higher prices.
Following the typhoon in Jiangsu, delayed vessels arrived in batches, while Shandong also saw concentrated arrivals, adding to short-term port inventory pressure. Rizhao prices stayed flat, while Taicang saw a slight increase, indicating regional divergence. For New Zealand small and medium forest owners and exporters, firm international prices are squeezing Chinese buyers' margins, and the concentrated arrivals risk weighing on prices.
Attention should turn to whether the 466,000 cubic metres of arrivals next week will continue to decline; if inventories draw down, spot prices may stabilise, but if not, rising costs cannot be passed through and further price gains will likely meet resistance.
Keywords: logs, radiata pine, price, arrivals, ocean freight, import volume, demand, cost support
Source: Sina.com
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