China offers certainty to New Zealand amid global uncertainty

Summary

In a signed article for the Silk Road special issue of the New Zealand Herald, Chinese Ambassador Wang Xiaolong said China brings certainty to New Zealand in a world of uncertainty. Bilateral trade exceeded NZ$42 billion in 2025, with China retaining its position as New Zealand's largest trading partner for many consecutive years, surpassing the combined goods trade of the second and third largest markets. According to a NZBRiC survey, 97% of New Zealand businesses remain optimistic about the Chinese market, 64% hold a high or very high level of optimism, and 51% have recorded profit growth.

Since visa facilitation took effect in November last year, Chinese tourist arrivals rose more than 40% in six months, with average per capita spending of NZ$5,800, injecting around NZ$210 million into the economy. Ambassador Wang noted that next year marks the centenary of Rewi Alley's arrival in China, with both sides planning commemorative events. He described China as an important partner and called for deeper cooperation and joint support for multilateralism.

Prime Minister Luxon also highlighted that China contributes about one-third of global economic growth and represents one of New Zealand's biggest opportunities.

Commentary

Ambassador Wang's article in the New Zealand Herald special issue makes a strong case that China delivers certainty to New Zealand, backed by trade data showing bilateral volumes surpassing NZ$42 billion in 2025, well ahead of other markets. For local SME owners, the Chinese market is less a grand narrative than a source of orders and profits: the NZBRiC survey indicates 97% of respondents are optimistic, with more than half already seeing profit growth. Visa facilitation has also spurred a 40% jump in Chinese tourist numbers over six months, with per capita spending of NZ$5,800, providing a direct boost to tourism, retail, and hospitality firms – suggesting operators should tailor Chinese-language services and payment options for independent travellers.

Yet businesses must acknowledge intensifying competition and polarised consumption in China; relying solely on traditional commodity exports may prove unsustainable. Zespri's success in maintaining premium pricing through localised marketing and variety innovation offers a model, while dairy exporters need to monitor substitution effects from expanding local pasture production in China. Next year's centennial of Rewi Alley's arrival could create more SME exchange platforms.

Notably, under the 15th Five-Year Plan, areas such as new energy and digital technology are expected to open fresh cooperation opportunities – early movers in certification and channel development will gain an edge.

Keywords: China-New Zealand relations, trade volume, Chinese market, tourism consumption, business confidence, multilateralism, certainty, Rewi Alley, cooperation opportunities, New Zealand

Source: Embassy of China in New Zealand – Bilateral Relations