China’s manufacturing exports show structural upgrade with ‘big four’

Summary

China's manufacturing export structure showed notable changes in the first half of 2026, with chips, ships, new energy vehicles (NEVs) and photovoltaic (PV) products – collectively labelled the 'big four' by industry observers – leading the shift. Wang Weiming, chief engineer at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said new ship orders from January to May accounted for 81.2% of global total, maintaining the leading position. Zhang Xinlong, general manager of CSSC Chengxi, said the company's current order book exceeds 120 vessels, with production scheduled through 2030.

Guangzhou Shipyard International's order book has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with production also booked to 2030. Chip production averaged over 1.5 billion units per day in the first half, with integrated circuit exports reaching US$177.28 billion, a 96% year-on-year surge. June saw monthly vehicle exports exceed 1 million units for the first time, up 75.1%.

First-half vehicle exports hit US$91.8 billion, up 54%, with cumulative exports surpassing 5 million units. PV product exports rose 36.5% in the first half. Wang Haitao, international sales general manager of Yingli Energy, said Chinese PV companies have become a core engine for energy transition in emerging markets like the Middle East, shifting from 'product export' to 'service and solution export'.

Zhou Xiaoyang, president of Xinjuneng, said the automotive supply chain is transitioning from 'product export' to 'industry export' through three paths: accompanying vehicle exports, building overseas factories, and entering non-Chinese OEM supply chains. Wang Hanyi, a research fellow at Shanghai International Studies University, said the growth driver for China's foreign trade is shifting to innovation, with the going-global model upgrading to 'product + technology + service + localised operations'. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative partner countries reached 12.97 trillion yuan in the first half, up 14.8%, accounting for 50.9% of total trade.

Company orders are generally booked through 2030, indicating strong competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing in the global market.

Commentary

The surge in China's 'big four' exports reflects a shift from product output to technology, services and localised operations. For NZ small and medium business owners, challenges and opportunities coexist. On one hand, surging Chinese vehicle and PV exports may squeeze NZ's market share in some segments, especially as trade with BRI countries already accounts for over half, potentially diverting NZ's traditional export markets.

On the other hand, China's 'service export' trend opens interfaces for local businesses: NZ distributors and installers can provide localised services for Chinese brands, particularly in rooftop solar and EV charger maintenance. With monthly NEV exports exceeding 1 million units and PV exports up 36.5%, NZ could leverage RCEP rules to participate in the supply chain and capture green transition dividends. However, note that China's chip exports nearly doubled, and semiconductor self-sufficiency may reshape global procurement patterns – NZ tech firms should reassess supply risks and costs.

Keywords: manufacturing upgrade, export structure optimisation, chip exports, ship orders, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic products, going-global model, emerging markets, orders booked to 2030, industrial upgrading

Source: Global Times