China log market: NZ radiata pine holds ground as arrivals rise

Summary

New Zealand radiata pine continues to dominate China's log market, with 91 vessels carrying 2.6224 million cubic metres of softwood logs arriving at China's 13 ports in September 2026, up 2.6223 percent month on month. NZ material accounted for 85 percent of arrivals. At Rizhao Port, 2.6222m KIS is quoted at RMB 700, 2.6221m Large A at RMB 900, 2.6220m Medium A at RMB 830, 3.9m Small A at RMB 750, and 5.9m Large A at RMB 970.

China imported 4.705 million cubic metres of logs and sawn timber in July, with the first seven months totalling 31.238 million cubic metres, down 6.7 percent year on year. NZ material made up 90 percent of arrivals and rose month on month, while other major source countries declined. The August AWG price for NZ logs held steady, domestic sawn timber demand was strong, and a 5 percent price increase and removal of the fuel surcharge are expected in September, though high ocean freight rates and a stronger NZ dollar are squeezing returns.

In November, the AWG price for NZ export logs was relatively stable compared with October, with sawn timber log prices rising NZD 1 per JAS/m³ and pruned log prices rising NZD 4 per JAS/m³; China CFR log prices recently fell USD 2 per cubic metre and remain under downward pressure. On the supply side, direct shipments from NZ to China increased, but domestic arrivals fell 29 percent month on month, with inventories edging up 0.85 percent to 2.37 million cubic metres. Affected by rising costs, full-year log exports from NZ's Napier Port fell 2.8 percent to 2.622 million tonnes, but volumes in the final quarter of the financial year rose 4.4 percent year on year.

Commentary

New Zealand radiata pine's dominance in China's log market is unlikely to be challenged in the short term, with arrivals accounting for 85 percent in September, but this concentrated reliance also exposes risks. Arrivals of softwood logs at China's 13 ports rose 7.59 percent month on month, and while NZ material's share is high, overall imports fell 6.7 percent year on year in the first seven months, reflecting weak Chinese construction demand. For NZ SMEs, price volatility and inventory accumulation in the Chinese market (2.37 million cubic metres, up 0.85 percent) mean narrower room for negotiation, and attention should be paid to the actual stimulus effect of China's property policies and infrastructure projects.

On the other hand, NZ exporters are accelerating market diversification, with emerging markets such as India mentioned, but China remains the core buyer in the short term. Stable AWG prices and an expected 5 percent increase in September indicate strong sawn timber demand, but high ocean freight rates and a stronger NZ dollar are compressing margins, a reminder that exporters need to optimise logistics contracts and use foreign exchange hedging tools. Notably, China's timber self-sufficiency is improving, which could reduce import dependence in the long run, and NZ companies should position early in high-grade sawn timber and customised products rather than relying solely on bulk logs.

Napier Port's full-year exports fell 2.8 percent but rebounded 4.4 percent in the final quarter of the financial year, suggesting market resilience, though rising costs and geopolitical factors may continue to erode profits. For NZ SMEs, it is advisable to monitor China's log inventory cycle and price signals while exploring direct cooperation with buyers in India and Southeast Asia to diversify risk.

Keywords: New Zealand radiata pine, log prices, Rizhao Port, softwood log arrivals, AWG price, China log imports, port inventories, Napier Port, sawn timber demand, CFR price

Source: Mysteel