Australian think tank claims Chinese missiles can reach Australian mainland

Summary

Australia's 205,000-tonne beef export quota to China is nearly exhausted. From 1 January 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce will impose safeguard measures on imported beef, including country-specific quotas and an additional 55% tariff on over-quota shipments. Australia's trade minister has rushed to China to lobby for expanded or waived quotas.

Meanwhile, an Australian think tank released a report hyping Chinese missile capabilities that can cover the Australian mainland, highlighting the Dongfeng series threat in an attempt to draw the US closer for security, contain China's influence in the South Pacific, and gain leverage in trade negotiations with China. China emphasises the defensive nature of its national defence policy and can strictly control quotas economically. Australia's beef industry relies on China for 21% of its exports; while shifting to the US market, stability remains uncertain.

China's domestic industry needs protection from import surges, and the policy aims to balance trade.

Commentary

With China imposing quotas and tariffs on beef imports, New Zealand, as a major beef exporter, must be vigilant about similar measures. In the short term, Australia's tight quota may prompt Chinese buyers to turn to New Zealand beef, creating order opportunities, but it is necessary to monitor whether China's domestic industry protection extends to New Zealand. In the long run, geopolitical tensions increase trade uncertainty: if China-Australia relations remain cold economically but hot politically, New Zealand can maintain relative neutrality, avoid being drawn into security issues, and focus on product quality and supply chain stability.

The Australian think tank's hype about missile threats is essentially aimed at securing US security commitments, and South Pacific island nations may be drawn in. New Zealand businesses should diversify markets to reduce single reliance on China, while leveraging China's rigid demand for high-quality protein to strengthen brand and traceability advantages. Conclusion: The beef quota game shows that China's market rules are flexible but politically influenced.

New Zealand needs to continuously monitor policy dynamics and maintain trade channel resilience.

Keywords: Australian beef, import quota, safeguard measures, tariff increase, Chinese missile threat, Australian think tank, geopolitics, trade negotiations, South Pacific, US-Australia alliance

Source: Penguin Number