China-US agricultural trade slumps 33%, consultations set expansion targets

Summary

Total agricultural trade between China and the US fell to US$26.8 billion in 2025, down 32.8% year-on-year. On 13 May 2026,

the two sides held economic and trade consultations in South Korea, setting guiding targets to expand bilateral agricultural trade and agreeing in principle to include relevant products in a reciprocal tariff reduction framework.

Commentary

The slump in China-US agricultural trade follows ongoing trade frictions. Recent consultations have set expansion targets and agreed in principle on reciprocal tariff cuts. For New Zealand's small and medium-sized enterprises, the earlier trade war prompted China to increase purchases of NZ dairy and meat products.

If large volumes of US agricultural commodities return to the market, price competition will intensify. However, NZ's differentiated product categories such as grass-fed, organic, and infant formula still maintain barriers. It is recommended to accelerate entry into China's second- and third-tier city retail channels and strengthen provenance branding.

Meanwhile, tariff cuts on US corn and soybeans may lower feed costs for livestock, allowing importers to optimise supply chains. Close attention should be paid to access negotiations for US beef and whey powder, and exporters should adjust product mix in a timely manner to avoid homogeneous low-price competition.

Keywords: China-US agricultural trade, total trade volume, economic and trade consultations, reciprocal tariff reductions, trade frictions, agricultural cooperation, imports and exports

Summary in Chinese | 摘要

2025年中美农产品贸易总额268亿美元，同比下降32.8%。2026年5月13日，双方在韩国举行经贸磋商，设定扩大农产品双向贸易的指导性目标，并原则同意将相关农产品纳入对等降税的框架安排。

Commentary in Chinese | 评论

中美农产品贸易在摩擦后骤降，近期磋商设定扩大目标并原则同意对等降税。对新西兰中小企业，此前贸易战促使中国加大采购新西兰乳肉产品，若美国大宗农产品重返，价格竞争将再升温。但新西兰草饲、有机及婴配粉等差异化品类仍具壁垒，建议加速布局中国二三线城市零售渠道，强化产地背书。

同时，美国玉米大豆降税可能压低养殖饲料成本，相关进口商可借此优化供应链。需紧盯美国牛肉、乳清粉等准入谈判细节，适时调整出口产品结构，规避同质化低价竞争。

关键词: 中美农产品贸易, 贸易总额, 经贸磋商, 对等降税, 贸易摩擦, 农业合作, 进出口

Source: Baidu Baike