New Zealand's beef production and exports are forecast to decline slightly in the 2025-26 season, according to data from Beef + Lamb New Zealand (BLNZ).

Export-oriented cattle slaughter is expected to reach 2.46 million head, down 1.6% from the previous season.

Beef production is forecast at 633,000 tonnes (down 1.4%), while beef exports are projected at 454,000 tonnes (down 1.5%).

The decline is attributed to strong dairy farmgate milk prices, which have encouraged dairy farmers to retain cows for milk production rather than send them to slaughter.

Notably, NZ beef exports to China fell 26.3% year-on-year in December 2025, as Chinese domestic beef supply increased and demand moderated. However, exports to Canada surged 79.4% and to Japan rose 46.6%, indicating successful diversification efforts.

据新西兰牛羊肉协会（BLNZ）数据，2025-26年度新西兰牛肉产量和出口预计将略有下降。

出口导向型肉牛屠宰量预计达246万头，较上年度减少1.6%。

牛肉产量预计为63.3万吨（下降1.4%），牛肉出口预计为45.4万吨（下降1.5%）。

下降归因于强劲的农场奶价，促使奶农保留奶牛用于产奶而非屠宰。

值得注意的是，2025年12月新西兰对华牛肉出口同比下降26.3%，因为中国国内牛肉供应增加且需求放缓。然而，对加拿大出口激增79.4%，对日本增长46.6%，表明多元化努力取得成功。

Comment:

The slight production decline is a natural market response to favourable dairy economics, not a structural concern.

The 26.3% drop in China exports is noteworthy but partly offset by strong growth in Canada and Japan.

With China's beef safeguard quotas now favouring NZ over Australia, we expect China-bound volumes to recover in the second half of 2026.

The diversification into Canada and Japan is a positive development that reduces over-reliance on any single market.

Overall, NZ beef remains well-positioned despite short-term fluctuations.

产量小幅下降是对有利乳制品经济状况的自然市场反应，而非结构性担忧。

对华出口下降26.3%值得关注，但对加拿大和日本的强劲增长部分抵消了这一影响。

随着中国牛肉保障配额现在有利于新西兰而非澳大利亚，我们预计2026年下半年对华出口量将回升。

向加拿大和日本的多元化是积极进展，减少了对任何单一市场的过度依赖。

总体而言，尽管存在短期波动，新西兰牛肉仍处于有利地位。