China’s softwood supplier landscape shifts

Summary

China's softwood supply sources have shifted markedly. Russia was once China's largest softwood supplier, shipping 8–10 million cubic metres a year; Russian log exports to China have now fallen to effectively zero, leaving a large supply gap. Market share is concentrating rapidly on New Zealand, with radiata pine's share climbing from 50 percent in 2020 to more than 75 percent today, sharply lifting supply chain concentration.

Japan has emerged as an important growth source, exporting 1.9 million cubic metres to China in 2025, up 13.2 percent year on year, with volumes continuing to grow on exchange rate and value-for-money advantages. Europe's share keeps falling, while radiata pine volumes from Uruguay and Chile have risen significantly, becoming important supplementary channels for the domestic market. The item was published on 17 September 2026 at 15:53.

Commentary

China's softwood supply map is undergoing disruptive change. Russian logs have effectively exited the market after export policy tightened, forcing Chinese importers to rebuild procurement channels, and New Zealand radiata pine has become the dominant source with a share above 75 percent. For New Zealand's small and medium-sized business owners, this is not only a positive demand signal but also a shift in bargaining power that comes with deep supply chain linkage.

China is the largest single export market for New Zealand radiata pine, taking about 70–80 percent of total log exports, while radiata pine plantations account for roughly 90 percent of New Zealand's planted forest area. Under the China-New Zealand free trade agreement, log exports already face zero tariffs, providing a stable trade flow for smaller New Zealand forestry firms, transport operators and port service providers. However, an overly concentrated market share means New Zealand export prices are highly sensitive to Chinese construction activity, property policy and inventory cycles.

Should Chinese demand contract, New Zealand log prices could fall quickly, squeezing margins for farm owners and exporters. At the same time, the competitive landscape is quietly changing. Japanese cedar exports to China rose 13.2 percent year on year, continuing to grow on a weak yen and value-for-money advantages, and its uses overlap with radiata pine.

Chile and Uruguay in South America are also expanding radiata pine planting and exports; with the same species and similar costs, they are alternatives Chinese importers can use to spread risk. European spruce, though its share has declined, remains irreplaceable in high-end structural and furniture timber. New Zealand firms should not be satisfied with log exports alone, and should assess the feasibility of extending into sawn timber, glulam and other processed products.

China's domestic wood processing industry is consolidating faster and environmental policy is tightening, lifting demand for sawn timber with stable grades and uniform specifications — New Zealand is well placed to raise product value added by leveraging its logistics proximity to Asia. The concentration trend in China's softwood market benefits New Zealand in the short term, but Japanese and South American supply is accelerating its erosion of marginal growth. If New Zealand exporters keep relying on a single log trade model, they will struggle to hedge against cyclical downturns in China's construction sector.

Expanding into alternative markets such as Southeast Asia and India while advancing local downstream processing is the key to stable returns.

Keywords: softwood, New Zealand radiata pine, Russian logs, Japanese timber, Uruguay, Chile, timber imports, supply landscape

Source: China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association