China’s softwood supplier landscape shifts

Summary

China's softwood supply sources have shifted markedly. Russia was once China's largest softwood supplier, shipping 8–10 million cubic metres a year; Russian log exports to China have now fallen to effectively zero, leaving a large supply gap. Market share is concentrating rapidly on New Zealand, with radiata pine's share climbing from 50 percent in 2020 to more than 75 percent today, sharply lifting supply chain concentration.

Japan has emerged as an important growth source, exporting 1.9 million cubic metres to China in 2025, up 13.2 percent year on year, with volumes continuing to grow on exchange rate and value-for-money advantages. Europe's share keeps falling, while radiata pine volumes from Uruguay and Chile have risen significantly, becoming important supplementary channels for the domestic market. The item was published on 17 September 2026 at 15:53.

Commentary

China's softwood supply map is undergoing disruptive change. Russian logs have effectively exited the market after export policy tightened, forcing Chinese importers to rebuild procurement channels, and New Zealand radiata pine has become the dominant source with a share above 75 percent. For New Zealand's small and medium-sized business owners, this is not only a positive demand signal but also a shift in bargaining power that comes with deep supply chain linkage.

China is the largest single export market for New Zealand radiata pine, taking about 70–80 percent of total log exports, while radiata pine plantations account for roughly 90 percent of New Zealand's planted forest area. Under the China-New Zealand free trade agreement, log exports already face zero tariffs, providing a stable trade flow for smaller New Zealand forestry firms, transport operators and port service providers. However, an overly concentrated market share means New Zealand export prices are highly sensitive to Chinese construction activity, property policy and inventory cycles.

Should Chinese demand contract, New Zealand log prices could fall quickly, squeezing margins for farm owners and exporters. At the same time, the competitive landscape is quietly changing. Japanese cedar exports to China rose 13.2 percent year on year, continuing to grow on a weak yen and value-for-money advantages, and its uses overlap with radiata pine.

Chile and Uruguay in South America are also expanding radiata pine planting and exports; with the same species and similar costs, they are alternatives Chinese importers can use to spread risk. European spruce, though its share has declined, remains irreplaceable in high-end structural and furniture timber. New Zealand firms should not be satisfied with log exports alone, and should assess the feasibility of extending into sawn timber, glulam and other processed products.

China's domestic wood processing industry is consolidating faster and environmental policy is tightening, lifting demand for sawn timber with stable grades and uniform specifications — New Zealand is well placed to raise product value added by leveraging its logistics proximity to Asia. The concentration trend in China's softwood market benefits New Zealand in the short term, but Japanese and South American supply is accelerating its erosion of marginal growth. If New Zealand exporters keep relying on a single log trade model, they will struggle to hedge against cyclical downturns in China's construction sector.

Expanding into alternative markets such as Southeast Asia and India while advancing local downstream processing is the key to stable returns.

Keywords: softwood, New Zealand radiata pine, Russian logs, Japanese timber, Uruguay, Chile, timber imports, supply landscape

Summary in Chinese | 摘要

中国针叶材供应国格局发生明显改变。此前俄罗斯是我国最大针叶木供应国，年供货规模800—1000万立方米；目前俄原木对华出口基本归零，形成巨大供给缺口。市场份额快速向新西兰集中，新西兰辐射松占比从2020年50%攀升至目前75%以上，供应链集中度大幅提升。

与此同时，日本材成为重要增长极，2025年对华出口190万立方米，同比增长13.2%，凭借汇率优势、性价比优势持续放量。欧洲货源占比持续下滑，南美乌拉圭、智利辐射松增量显著，成为国内市场重要补充渠道。该资讯于2026年9月17日15:53发布。

Commentary in Chinese | 评论

中国针叶材供应版图正在经历颠覆性调整。俄罗斯原木因出口政策收紧基本退出市场，中国进口商被迫重塑采购渠道，新西兰辐射松以75%以上的份额成为绝对主力。对于新西兰中小企业主而言，这不仅是需求端的利好信号，更应看到供应链深度绑定带来的议价权变化。

中国是新西兰辐射松最大的单一出口市场，约占原木出口总量的70%—80%，辐射松人工林占新西兰商品林面积的90%左右。中新自贸协定框架下，原木出口已实现零关税，这为新西兰中小型林业企业、运输商和港口服务商提供了稳定的贸易流。然而，市场份额过度集中意味着新西兰出口价格对中国国内建筑活动、房地产政策和库存周期高度敏感，一旦中国需求收缩，新西兰原木价格可能快速下跌，农场主和出口商的利润空间会被压缩。

与此同时，竞争格局正在悄然变化。日本柳杉对华出口同比增长13.2%，凭借日元疲软和性价比优势持续放量，其用途与辐射松存在交叉；南美的智利、乌拉圭也在扩大辐射松种植和出口，品种相同、成本接近，成为中国进口商分散风险的替代选项。欧洲云杉虽份额下滑，但在高端结构材和家具材领域仍具不可替代性。

新西兰企业不能仅满足于原木出口，而应评估向锯材、胶合木等加工产品延伸的可行性。中国国内木材加工行业整合加速，环保政策趋严，对等级稳定、规格统一的锯材需求上升，新西兰有条件依托靠近亚洲的物流优势，提升产品附加值。中国针叶材市场的集中化趋势在短期内使新西兰受益，但日本和南美供应正在加速侵蚀边际增量。

新西兰出口商若继续依赖原木贸易单一模式，将难以对冲中国建筑业周期性下行风险，拓展东南亚、印度等替代市场并推进本地深加工，才是稳定收益的关键。

关键词: 针叶材, 新西兰辐射松, 俄罗斯原木, 日本材, 乌拉圭, 智利, 木材进口, 供应格局

Source: China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association